News and Events

China economy rebound hedged by doubt

It is reported that concerns are mounting over the expected rebound in the Chinese economy as the government attempts to institute critical reforms.

Growth slowed to a three-year low last quarter at 8.1% and could fall back even further next quarter.

Exports have emerged as the biggest concern for China. They have helped drive its spectacular growth during the past three decades, but the ongoing European crisis has raised concerns.

State-run Global Time said "According to a survey conducted by Chinese media which queried experts from 50 financial institutions, China imports are expected to grow by 11.1%YoY in April up by 5.8% compared with the YoY growth rate recorded in March."

It said "Meanwhile, the growth rate of China's exports is expected to gain by 9.2%YoY, in April up a scant 0.3%YoY growth tally."

Mr Wang Tao UBS economist said "The market remains sceptical about the timing and strength of a rebound in China's economic activity."

He said that "Investors are particularly concerned about the composition and sustainability of the increase in bank lending, which we think would be the focus in the upcoming April data release. We think April data would show that economic activity is rebounding modestly but may not be sufficient to clear all the doubts."

Still despite the slowdown in the property market, demand for iron ore Australia biggest export to China which accounts for about USD 40 billion or our USD 113 billion in two way trade is expected to grow this year.

Mr Xu Guangjian an analyst at Umetal a consultancy and information provider for the iron and steel industry said "We predict ore demand in China for 2012 will be 6% to 6.5% more than that of the year past with imported ore increase approximately 8% than 2011."

Mr Xu price estimates are in line with those recently nominated by major iron ore producers. He said that "The price will fluctuate between USD 130 and USD 150 per tonne."